The 2024 college football season has been nothing short of unpredictable, and after Oregon’s thrilling 32-31 victory over Ohio State in Eugene, the College Football Playoff (CFP) race is clearer for some and murkier for others. With the CFP expanding to 12 teams, there’s more room for unexpected outcomes, and teams that might have been considered out of the race in previous years now have a chance to fight their way back.
Expanded Playoff Opens Doors
The CFP expansion to 12 teams has changed the landscape of college football. In the past, two losses would almost guarantee the end of a team’s playoff hopes, but in 2024, even teams with three or possibly four losses could have a shot at making the field, especially with five spots reserved for the highest-ranked conference champions. However, for teams with multiple losses at this point in the season, the road to the Playoff is getting steep.
Oregon and Ohio State’s Playoff Path
Both Oregon and Ohio State are emerging as front-runners in the Big Ten, likely securing their spots in the Playoff after Oregon’s narrow victory over the Buckeyes. The Ducks and Buckeyes look to be the two best teams in the conference by a comfortable margin, with their rematch in the Big Ten title game being a strong possibility. While Oregon doesn’t have to face Penn State or Indiana in the regular season, Ohio State still has those matchups ahead, adding some intrigue to the Buckeyes’ path.
Teams Falling Out of Contention
Several high-profile teams are finding their Playoff hopes diminishing. USC, which started the season strong, has now lost three of its last four games, putting the Trojans out of serious contention. After blowing a 14-point lead to Penn State and losing in overtime, USC is now 1-3 in the Big Ten, effectively ending their Playoff aspirations.
Similarly, Ole Miss, despite a promising start, faces an uphill battle. With two losses and no wins against Power 4 teams with winning records, their only path to Playoff relevance likely hinges on beating Georgia in November. Even then, finishing 9-3 might not be enough to earn them a spot in the expanded field.
Surprises in the SEC and Beyond
LSU, after a rough start to the season, has managed to rebound and become a legitimate Playoff contender. The Tigers, led by quarterback Garrett Nussmeier, have shown resilience, particularly in their overtime victory over Ole Miss. As they march through the remainder of their schedule, LSU has a legitimate shot at securing a top spot in the rankings.
On the other hand, Alabama’s Playoff chances have taken a hit. Despite narrowly avoiding a home upset against South Carolina, the Crimson Tide are in a precarious position. With upcoming games against ranked SEC opponents, including Missouri and LSU, Alabama will need to make significant improvements to stay in the race. Meanwhile, Georgia, though still a contender, hasn’t quite lived up to their preseason expectations. Their upcoming matchup with Texas will be crucial in determining the SEC hierarchy.
Utah’s Role as a Spoiler
Utah, which started the season as a favorite in the Big 12, has stumbled, losing two straight games. Despite the return of quarterback Cam Rising, who struggled with three interceptions against Arizona State, the Utes are likely playing for pride rather than a Playoff spot at this point. Utah’s upcoming matchups against BYU, Colorado, and Iowa State may allow them to play spoiler, but their own Playoff dreams are likely over.
The SEC’s Crowded Middle
The SEC’s traditional dominance has led to a crowded middle tier of teams, many of whom are still jockeying for Playoff positioning. Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Tennessee are all still in the mix, but each has shown vulnerabilities. Next week’s SEC clash between Georgia and Texas could provide some much-needed clarity, as could Alabama’s upcoming stretch against Tennessee and LSU.
ACC Positioned for Success
While the SEC and Big Ten have been grabbing most of the headlines, the ACC quietly has a chance to position itself well for the Playoff. Miami and Clemson are the conference’s best hopes, and a potential ACC Championship game featuring two undefeated teams could solidify the conference’s place in the Playoff. Miami has the advantage of not facing Clemson, Pitt, or SMU during the regular season, making their path to the championship game relatively smooth.
Conclusion
As the 2024 college football season progresses, the Playoff race is beginning to take shape, but uncertainty still looms. Oregon and Ohio State look like strong contenders, while teams like USC and Utah are fading. The expanded 12-team field means more teams have a shot, but it also creates more chaos, especially in conferences like the SEC where multiple teams could be fighting for at-large bids. The coming weeks will be critical as teams try to secure their spots in the field and avoid elimination.
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